RICHMOND, Va. — Of all the drivers still trying to get into the Chase, Greg Biffle has one of the best shots.
If he wins the Federated Auto Parts 400, he's in. If he doesn't and somebody who's already won a race this year wins, he has to finish in the top half of Saturday night's race at Richmond International Raceway.
The goal is to win, but if that's not possible, a decent finish is the ultimate goal.
"If we can win, we're going to try to win," Biffle said Friday before qualifying for the final race before the Chase. "But more importantly, we've got to get in the Chase. It's going to be up to the other guys to have to try to beat us.
"That means trying to win a race. … We know what we have to do. We have a good car so far. We just need to keep our head up and pay attention and have a good night."
Here's the situation: If there is a repeat 2014 winner (or if Matt Kenseth or Ryan Newman win), Biffle is guaranteed a spot in the 10-race Chase if he finishes 22nd or better. Fourteen drivers have already clinched a berth in the Chase, which begins with the Challenger Round on Sept. 14 at Chicagoland Speedway — the 13 drivers who have won a race plus Kenseth, who, despite being winless, has accumulated enough points to lock in his position.
"It's pretty simple mathematics for us," Biffle said. "We've got a good car — probably the best car we've had here the last two or three years — and that's a great confidence builder for us. We need to have a good, solid night, and I think we're capable of that."
He's not alone in his hope.
Newman, who leads Biffle by 19 points in the Sprint Cup standings, is even more secure. He controls his own destiny no matter who wins Saturday night. If there is a repeat winner (or a Kenseth victory), Newman clinches a Chase berth if he finishes 41st or better. If there is a new winner (that is not Kenseth), Newman is guaranteed a spot with a finish of 18th or better.
Newman was seven laps away from winning this race one year ago when a suspicious spin by Clint Bowyer brought out a caution. Newman ended up finishing third and just missing the Chase until NASCAR handed down massive penalties to Michael Waltrip Racing that elevated Newman into the Chase as the 12th driver. Jeff Gordon was given an unprecedented 13th Chase berth by NASCAR chairman Brian France.
"It seems like no matter what the format is, I still end up being that guy that ends up either in or out of the bubble," Newman said. "In the end, it is what it is. It's the same for everybody. It still involves winning races."
If there is a new winner at Richmond — other than Newman or Kenseth — Biffle would have to outpoint Newman by 19 points to secure the final Chase berth.
WATCH: Biffle, Newman discuss Chase scenarios
It's rare that Biffle goes a season without winning a race. It happened in 2009 and 2011, but before that, Biffle had won at least one race every season since his rookie year in 2002.
"This is one of the toughest years for us as far as competition goes," Biffle said. "We're happy the last five weeks to get it turned around. We know we're 10th in points — I don't know if that matters anymore — but we know we're 10th, so we're on the bubble in the old format. We're right there, but we feel like we're definitely getting better."
The end of Saturday's race might be the point at which Biffle gets cautious, especially if he's not close to winning. He expects those who don't have a win in 2014 to be going full bore to get one.
"It's going to get dicey at the end," Biffle said. "If there's a new winner, that's going to impact it. All those guys the No. 1 (Jamie McMurray), the 42 (Kyle Larson), the 15 (Bowyer), the 27 (Paul Menard) — that's their last lunge to get in. Whether it's stay out, take two tires, block, run a guy out of the groove — they're going to do whatever they can to win and get in the Chase. We hope it's uneventful."
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